The JF-17 Block 3, J-10 and the Pakistan Air Force
Insider info suggests Pakistan has purchased J-10s from China, which are imminently to arrive. This suggests they were ordered between 1 year to at least 6 months ago. Many people are confused why Pakistan would be buying the J-10 when it already has the JF-17, somewhat smaller peer of the J-10. In this post, I would like to look at some of the reasons why the J-10 makes sense for Pakistan.
War is brewing in the Subcontinent. With India breaking the status quo on Kashmir, it is almost inevitable for Pakistan to respond, particularly as atrocities and ethic cleansing gains momentum in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). With India also facing China in Ladakh, and a distracted US, the chance exists for either side to make a substantial grab of disputed territory, not unlike the Azerbaijan conflict, but obviously at a much larger scale with two nuclear armed nations. Meanwhile, India is inspired by a far right government that is following on the footsteps of a Nazi-like ideology, which historically has a tendency for the incumbent leader to pursue grandoise and expansionary aims.
Response to Indian purchase of French Rafale fighters. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has always prided itself in attempting to keep a qualitative advantage over the Indian Air Force (IAF), failing which to at least keep to some form of qualitative parity. Pakistan cannot counter this IAF purchase, as the JF-17 is not on qualitative parity with the Rafale, nor is the rate of production of JF-17s able to counter this new thread dimension (more on that later).
Chinese “buy for access” policies. China has realized it has something of a captive market with Pakistan, and has done the following with the Al Khalid tank. They would give substandard and defective subsystems, until Pakistan chose to buy the Chinese VT-4. Then all of a sudden, the problems were resolved overnight with the Al Khalid subsystems sourced from China. Delays with the JF-17 may in fact be caused by a similar arm twisting on the part of the Chinese. Additionally, the carrot the Chinese could offer is access to more advanced Chinese equipment if Pakistan buys the J-10. For instance, a better EW suite, PL-10 WVR AAMs, PL-15 and PL-21 AAMs. Pakistan could thus significantly improve its JF-17s via a purchase of the J-10 because of the incentivi-zation of access to Chinese tech.
Modern BVR tactics, aerodynamic requirements, and capabilities. Some argue that the JF-17 Block 3 can do all that the J-10 can, more or less, so why purchase a new aircraft and sink endless millions into new facilities, maintenance, etc? For BVR combat, the key element is the BVR missile. Between two contending forces, the combat aircraft that can launch missiles first, has the longer reach, can have a significant advantage over the other. The J-10 has superior thrust-to-weight ratio, aerodynamics at high altitude and high speeds, low wing loading, all meaning that it can get higher and faster than the JF-17, and position itself better in the thin air of high altitude combat. This means that even the very same missiles fired from the J-10 will have superior reach and will be fired earlier than the JF-17. Additionally, there is more space for more missiles and more powerful EW suites, both meaning even greater benefits for the J-10.
The rapid strategic resupply argument. In a past standoff between India and Pakistan, China was able to overnight supply Pakistan with dozens of F-7 fighters to bolster the PAF. However, today this is not possible because PAF and the PLA-AF do not share any common platforms. With a purchase of the J-10, this rapid “overnight” resupply will again become a potential strategic capability.
The above where some of the reasons I could think of. What do you think? Feel free to let me know if I have missed something in the comments section. Personally, I have a suspicion Pakistan is preparing quietly to retake Kashmir, and at the same time is anticipating an Indian aggression on Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Purchases taking place and JF-17s already quietly in production will not make it to the news easily, so the fog of war will ensure that outside observers remain unsure about what really is happening.